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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 5 at the 32

Los Angeles Chargers 6 – Denver Broncos 16

What Actually Happened

(6:23) 11-C.Dicker 50 yard field goal is BLOCKED (99-Z.Allen), Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +0.69 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.05 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 32, worth -1.42 EP
KICK +0.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 42, worth -1.91 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model