Back to Game
Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
?
Q4
Denver Broncos
4th & 9 at the 49
Denver Broncos 16 – Los Angeles Chargers 6
What Actually Happened
(3:06) 9-R.Dixon punts 49 yards to end zone, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Touchback.
The Three Options
GO
-1.36 EP
-
34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +1.02 EP
- 66% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.58 EP
KICK
-1.41 EP
- 33% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.03 EP
- 67% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.58 EP
PUNT
-1.23 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
- Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 14, worth -1.23 EP
The Verdict
Chose PUNT
✓ matched the model
