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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 7 at the 13

Denver Broncos 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(3:58) 16-W.Lutz 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +1.73 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.71 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 13, worth -0.27 EP
KICK +1.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 23, worth -0.84 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model