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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 8 at the 58

Los Angeles Rams 7 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(10:57) 42-E.Evans punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Tinker, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.53 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 58, worth -3.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -1.23 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 18, worth -1.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model