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Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
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New York Giants

HC Brian Daboll
Sunday 2023-12-31 · 13:00 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US ☀️ Clear Spread -6.0 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

LA
60.9%
NYG
39.1%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYG offense: -0.199 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • LA offense: +0.047 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • Tyrod Taylor (NYG): -0.033 EPA/dropback in prior starts (NYG starting Tyrod Taylor in place of Tommy DeVito)
  • LA on 4 more days rest than NYG

Predicted Final Score

LA 24
–
NYG 20
Projected margin: LA by 4 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

LA

Tre'Vius Tomlinson CB Out Hamstring
Alaric Jackson T Questionable Thigh
Ernest Jones LB Questionable Illness
Puka Nacua WR Questionable Hip
Joseph Noteboom T Questionable Foot

NYG

Lawrence Cager TE Doubtful Groin
Deonte Banks CB Questionable Shoulder
Wan'Dale Robinson WR Questionable Quadricep

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LA 26
–
NYG 25

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 03:11 TD LA (3:11) 23-K.Williams right guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 6 – NYG 0
  • Q2 13:11 TD NYG (13:11) 17-W.Robinson right end for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 7 – NYG 6
  • Q2 01:48 TD LA (1:48) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 10-C.Kupp for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 13 – NYG 7
  • Q2 00:00 FG NYG (:00) 21-M.Crosby 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan. LA 14 – NYG 10
  • Q3 10:22 TD LA (10:22) (No Huddle) 23-K.Williams right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 20 – NYG 10
  • Q3 04:50 TD NYG (4:50) (Shotgun) 2-T.Taylor pass deep right to 86-D.Slayton for 80 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 20 – NYG 16
  • Q4 13:28 FG NYG (13:28) 21-M.Crosby 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan. LA 20 – NYG 19
  • Q4 12:10 TD LA (12:10) 23-K.Williams right tackle for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 26 – NYG 19
  • Q4 03:49 TD NYG (3:49) 42-E.Evans punts 58 yards to NYG 6, Center-46-C.Tinker. 80-G.Olszewski for 94 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 26 – NYG 25

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LA 4th & 3 at the 21
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 90%

    (8:43) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 17-P.Nacua to NYG 17 for 4 yards (22-A.Jackson). New York Giants challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to 17-P.Nacua.

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 6 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (7:41) 6-J.Gillan punts 47 yards to LA 28, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 81-A.Trammell.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 8 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (10:57) 42-E.Evans punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Tinker, Touchback.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 7 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (8:53) 6-J.Gillan punts 52 yards to LA 25, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 81-A.Trammell.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 1 at the 53
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 21%

    (5:05) 2-T.Taylor FUMBLES (Aborted) at NYG 47, and recovers at NYG 46.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 10 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 25%

    (11:43) 6-J.Gillan punts 39 yards to LA 12, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 81-A.Trammell.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 9 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (7:52) 6-J.Gillan punts 39 yards to LA 21, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 81-A.Trammell.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 13 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (6:43) 42-E.Evans punts 72 yards to NYG 10, Center-46-C.Tinker. 80-G.Olszewski to NYG 9 for -1 yards (25-J.Taylor).

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 1 at the 25
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 85%

    (:43) (Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley left guard to LA 23 for 2 yards (92-J.Williams).

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 13 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 96%

    (13:28) 21-M.Crosby 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 1 at the 33
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 71%

    (8:43) (Shotgun) 2-T.Taylor pass short middle to 13-J.Hyatt to LA 34 for -1 yards (44-A.Witherspoon).

  • Q4 LA 4th & 6 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (7:50) 42-E.Evans punts 59 yards to NYG 3, Center-46-C.Tinker. 80-G.Olszewski pushed ob at NYG 17 for 14 yards (18-B.Skowronek; 35-J.Hummel).

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 11 at the 73 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (4:56) 6-J.Gillan punts 45 yards to LA 28, Center-59-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 17 at the 64 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (3:49) 42-E.Evans punts 58 yards to NYG 6, Center-46-C.Tinker. 80-G.Olszewski for 94 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 19 at the 84 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (1:17) 42-E.Evans punts 40 yards to NYG 44, Center-46-C.Tinker. 80-G.Olszewski ran ob at LA 48 for 8 yards (97-M.Hoecht). PENALTY on NYG-30-D.Holmes, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NYG 45.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 12 at the 36 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 63%

    (:35) 21-M.Crosby 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.