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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 7 at the 77

New York Giants 7 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(8:53) 6-J.Gillan punts 52 yards to LA 25, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 81-A.Trammell.

The Three Options

GO -1.87 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.82 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 77, worth -4.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 34, worth -1.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model