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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 10 at the 51

New York Giants 10 – Los Angeles Rams 14

What Actually Happened

(11:43) 6-J.Gillan punts 39 yards to LA 12, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 81-A.Trammell.

The Three Options

GO -0.97 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.22 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 51, worth -2.77 EP
KICK -1.55 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.77 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 14, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model