4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 25

New York Giants 16 – Los Angeles Rams 20

What Actually Happened

(:43) (Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley left guard to LA 23 for 2 yards (92-J.Williams).

The Three Options

GO +2.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.44 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25, worth -0.83 EP
KICK +1.57 EP
  • 85% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 35, worth -1.74 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model