4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 13 at the 13

New York Giants 16 – Los Angeles Rams 20

What Actually Happened

(13:28) 21-M.Crosby 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +1.25 EP
  • 23% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.06 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 13, worth -0.17 EP
KICK +1.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 23, worth -0.79 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model