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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 33

New York Giants 19 – Los Angeles Rams 26

What Actually Happened

(8:43) (Shotgun) 2-T.Taylor pass short middle to 13-J.Hyatt to LA 34 for -1 yards (44-A.Witherspoon).

The Three Options

GO +1.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.81 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 33, worth -1.52 EP
KICK +0.68 EP
  • 71% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 43, worth -2.01 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model