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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 3 at the 21

Los Angeles Rams 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(8:43) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 17-P.Nacua to NYG 17 for 4 yards (22-A.Jackson). New York Giants challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to 17-P.Nacua.

The Three Options

GO +1.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.66 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth -1.03 EP
KICK +1.27 EP
  • 90% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 31, worth -1.83 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model