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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 6 at the 62

Los Angeles Rams 26 – New York Giants 19

What Actually Happened

(7:50) 42-E.Evans punts 59 yards to NYG 3, Center-46-C.Tinker. 80-G.Olszewski pushed ob at NYG 17 for 14 yards (18-B.Skowronek; 35-J.Hummel).

The Three Options

GO -0.98 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.08 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 62, worth -3.31 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 21, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model