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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 5 at the 45

Miami Dolphins 10 – Baltimore Ravens 14

What Actually Happened

(4:41) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep left to 10-T.Hill ran ob at BAL 20 for 25 yards (23-R.Ya-Sin).

The Three Options

GO -0.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.21 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 45, worth -2.54 EP
KICK -1.01 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.94 EP
PUNT -0.67 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 12, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model