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Miami Dolphins

HC Mike McDaniel
@
BAL Home

Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
Sunday 2023-12-31 · 13:00 M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore US 🌧 Rain Spread 3.0 O/U 47.0

Win Probability

MIA
40.7%
BAL
59.3%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • BAL offense: +0.112 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • BAL defense: -0.122 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • MIA defense: -0.191 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • MIA offense: +0.047 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • Tua Tagovailoa (MIA): +0.136 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

MIA 24
–
BAL 27
Projected margin: BAL by 3 Projected total: 51

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

MIA

Jaylen Waddle WR Out Ankle
Robert Hunt G Doubtful Hamstring
Lester Cotton G Questionable Hip
Liam Eichenberg G Questionable Calf
Jevon Holland S Questionable Knee
Xavien Howard CB Questionable Hip
Austin Jackson T Questionable Oblique
Raheem Mostert RB Questionable Knee
Jalen Ramsey CB Questionable Knee

BAL

Jalyn Armour-Davis CB Out Concussion
Kyle Hamilton S Questionable Knee
Del'Shawn Phillips LB Questionable Shoulder
Brandon Stephens CB Questionable Ankle
Kevin Zeitler G Questionable Knee
Zay Flowers WR Questionable Calf

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIA 19
–
BAL 56

Prediction missed by 34 pts on margin, 24 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:04 TD MIA (11:04) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle to 11-C.Wilson for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 6 – BAL 0
  • Q1 06:44 TD BAL (6:44) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep right to 43-J.Hill for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 7 – BAL 6
  • Q1 03:42 FG MIA (3:42) 7-J.Sanders 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey. MIA 10 – BAL 7
  • Q2 06:59 TD BAL (6:59) 35-G.Edwards right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 10 – BAL 13
  • Q2 03:14 FG MIA (3:14) 7-J.Sanders 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey. MIA 13 – BAL 14
  • Q2 03:10 TD BAL (3:10) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep right to 4-Z.Flowers for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 13 – BAL 20
  • Q2 01:32 TD BAL (1:32) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 80-I.Likely for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 13 – BAL 27
  • Q3 13:35 TD BAL (13:35) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 80-I.Likely for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 13 – BAL 34
  • Q4 14:03 TD MIA (14:03) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle to 28-D.Achane for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 19 – BAL 35
  • Q4 09:43 TD BAL (9:43) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 42-P.Ricard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 19 – BAL 41
  • Q4 04:19 TD BAL (4:19) (Shotgun) 33-M.Gordon up the middle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 19 – BAL 48
  • Q4 02:33 TD BAL (2:33) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley pass deep middle to 88-C.Kolar for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 19 – BAL 55

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 6 at the 8
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 98%

    (3:42) 7-J.Sanders 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 7 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (:26) 11-J.Stout punts 33 yards to MIA 25, Center-69-T.Ott, out of bounds. PENALTY on MIA-53-C.Goode, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIA 25.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 11 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (12:53) 16-J.Bailey punts 48 yards to BAL 11, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 16-T.Wallace.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 5 at the 45
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 42%

    (4:41) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep left to 10-T.Hill ran ob at BAL 20 for 25 yards (23-R.Ya-Sin).

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 10 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 91%

    (3:14) 7-J.Sanders 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 7 at the 35
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 68%

    (1:32) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 80-I.Likely for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 11 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (:10) 16-J.Bailey punts 62 yards to end zone, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Touchback.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 11 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (10:45) 16-J.Bailey punts 48 yards to BAL 17, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 16-T.Wallace to BAL 23 for 6 yards (41-C.Tindall).

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 7 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (5:48) 11-J.Stout punts 38 yards to MIA 22, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by BAL-16-T.Wallace.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 4 at the 23
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 88%

    (:05) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 0-B.Berrios to BAL 17 for 6 yards (10-A.Maulet).

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 13 at the 77
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.96 EP
    p(convert) 32%

    (8:02) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa scrambles up the middle to MIA 32 for 9 yards (6-P.Queen).

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 5 at the 70 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.44 EP
    p(convert) 46%

    (:18) (Shotgun) 35-C.Brooks left guard to MIA 33 for 3 yards (96-B.Washington; 30-T.Simpson).