4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 7 at the 35

Baltimore Ravens 21 – Miami Dolphins 13

What Actually Happened

(1:32) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 80-I.Likely for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +0.61 EP
What Happened
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.09 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 35, worth -1.41 EP
KICK +0.77 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 45, worth -2.07 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model