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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 13 at the 77

Miami Dolphins 19 – Baltimore Ravens 42

What Actually Happened

(8:02) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa scrambles up the middle to MIA 32 for 9 yards (6-P.Queen).

The Three Options

GO -2.48 EP
What Happened
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.68 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 77, worth -4.42 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 34, worth -1.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.96 EP