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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 5 at the 70

Miami Dolphins 19 – Baltimore Ravens 56

What Actually Happened

(:18) (Shotgun) 35-C.Brooks left guard to MIA 33 for 3 yards (96-B.Washington; 30-T.Simpson).

The Three Options

GO -0.50 EP
What Happened
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.25 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 70, worth -1.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 28, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.44 EP