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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 7 at the 58

Baltimore Ravens 7 – Miami Dolphins 10

What Actually Happened

(:26) 11-J.Stout punts 33 yards to MIA 25, Center-69-T.Ott, out of bounds. PENALTY on MIA-53-C.Goode, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIA 25.

The Three Options

GO -0.57 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.96 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 58, worth -2.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 18, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model