Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 5 at the 60

New York Jets 7 – Cleveland Browns 20

(11:53) 5-T.Morstead punts 39 yards to CLE 21, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.32 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.15 EP
62% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 60, worth -3.46 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model