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NYJ Away

New York Jets

HC Robert Saleh
@
CLE Home

Cleveland Browns

HC Kevin Stefanski
Thursday 2023-12-28 · 20:15 FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland US 🌧 Rain Spread 6.5 O/U 33.5

Win Probability

NYJ
22.7%
CLE
77.3%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYJ offense: -0.292 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • CLE defense: -0.184 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • CLE offense: -0.117 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • NYJ defense: -0.108 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • QB edge to CLE: Joe Flacco (CLE) -0.057 vs Trevor Siemian (NYJ) -0.157 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

NYJ 15
–
CLE 25
Projected margin: CLE by 10 Projected total: 40

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

NYJ

Duane Brown T Out Back
Aaron Rodgers QB Out Achilles
Jeremy Ruckert TE Out Concussion
Zach Wilson QB Out Concussion
Allen Lazard WR Questionable Illness
Israel Abanikanda RB Questionable Ankle
Greg Zuerlein K Questionable right Quadricep

CLE

Dustin Hopkins K Out left Hamstring
Ogbonnia Okoronkwo DE Out Pectoral
Anthony Walker LB Out Knee
Corey Bojorquez P Doubtful left Quadricep
Amari Cooper WR Questionable Not injury related - resting player
Juan Thornhill S Questionable Calf
Marquise Goodwin WR Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYJ 20
–
CLE 37

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 17 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:15 TD CLE (11:15) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass short left to 34-J.Ford for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 0 – CLE 6
  • Q1 08:14 TD NYJ (8:14) (Shotgun) 14-T.Siemian pass short middle to 20-Bre.Hall for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 6 – CLE 7
  • Q1 04:46 TD CLE (4:46) 27-K.Hunt up the middle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 7 – CLE 13
  • Q1 02:12 TD CLE (2:12) 14-T.Siemian pass short middle intended for 17-G.Wilson INTERCEPTED by 33-R.Hickman at NYJ 30. 33-R.Hickman for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 7 – CLE 19
  • Q2 06:20 TD CLE (6:20) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass short left to 8-E.Moore for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 7 – CLE 26
  • Q2 02:13 TD NYJ (2:13) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass short left intended for 85-D.Njoku INTERCEPTED by 11-J.Johnson at CLE 37. 11-J.Johnson for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 13 – CLE 27
  • Q2 01:41 TD CLE (1:41) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass short left to 34-J.Ford for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 14 – CLE 33
  • Q2 00:03 FG NYJ (:03) 9-G.Zuerlein 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead. NYJ 17 – CLE 34
  • Q4 08:54 FG NYJ (8:54) 9-G.Zuerlein 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead. NYJ 20 – CLE 34
  • Q4 02:58 FG CLE (2:58) 36-R.Patterson 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-39-M.Haack. NYJ 20 – CLE 37

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 4 at the 6
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 98%

    (3:28) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass incomplete short middle to 19-C.Tillman.

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 5 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (:08) 5-T.Morstead punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Touchback.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 5 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (11:53) 5-T.Morstead punts 39 yards to CLE 21, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (4:45) 5-T.Morstead punts 49 yards to CLE 18, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 11-J.Proche.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 13 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 20% p(FG) 96%

    (9:31) 9-G.Zuerlein 31 yard field goal is BLOCKED (93-S.Harris), Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead, recovered by NYJ-61-M.Mitchell at CLE 16.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 3 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (8:01) 39-M.Haack punts 44 yards to NYJ 33, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 45%

    (2:13) 5-T.Morstead punts 34 yards to CLE 10, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 11-J.Proche.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 7 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (:17) 39-M.Haack punts 55 yards to NYJ 27, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 82-X.Gipson ran ob at NYJ 47 for 20 yards (88-H.Bryant).

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 11 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 45%

    (13:35) 5-T.Morstead punts 34 yards to CLE 10, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 11-J.Proche.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 16 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 19% p(FG) 85%

    (8:54) 9-G.Zuerlein 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (7:23) 39-M.Haack punts 56 yards to NYJ 13, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 82-X.Gipson pushed ob at NYJ 23 for 10 yards (88-H.Bryant).

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 73
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.92 EP
    p(convert) 37%

    (5:37) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-T.Siemian scrambles left end to NYJ 32 for 5 yards (6-J.Owusu-Koramoah).

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 4 at the 14 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 95%

    (2:58) 36-R.Patterson 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-39-M.Haack.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 32 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.60 EP
    p(convert) 61% p(FG) 75%

    (:08) (Shotgun) 14-T.Siemian pass short middle to 88-K.Yeboah to CLE 12 for 20 yards (0-G.Newsome; 6-J.Owusu-Koramoah).