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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 13 at the 13

New York Jets 17 – Cleveland Browns 34

What Actually Happened

(9:31) 9-G.Zuerlein 31 yard field goal is BLOCKED (93-S.Harris), Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead, recovered by NYJ-61-M.Mitchell at CLE 16.

The Three Options

GO +0.67 EP
  • 20% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.58 EP
  • 80% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 13, worth -0.56 EP
KICK +1.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.61 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 23, worth -1.20 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model