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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 10 at the 44

New York Jets 17 – Cleveland Browns 34

What Actually Happened

(2:13) 5-T.Morstead punts 34 yards to CLE 10, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 11-J.Proche.

The Three Options

GO -0.94 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.39 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 44, worth -2.47 EP
KICK -0.86 EP
  • 45% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.61 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.89 EP
PUNT -0.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 12, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model