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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 7 at the 82

Cleveland Browns 34 – New York Jets 17

What Actually Happened

(:17) 39-M.Haack punts 55 yards to NYJ 27, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 82-X.Gipson ran ob at NYJ 47 for 20 yards (88-H.Bryant).

The Three Options

GO -2.27 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.29 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 82, worth -4.58 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -1.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 40, worth -1.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model