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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 16 at the 26

New York Jets 17 – Cleveland Browns 34

What Actually Happened

(8:54) 9-G.Zuerlein 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO -0.15 EP
  • 19% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.11 EP
  • 81% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26, worth -1.38 EP
KICK +1.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 36, worth -1.85 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model