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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 4 at the 14

Cleveland Browns 34 – New York Jets 20

What Actually Happened

(2:58) 36-R.Patterson 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-39-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +1.03 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +4.03 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 14, worth -0.97 EP
KICK +1.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.32 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 24, worth -1.70 EP
PUNT -0.89 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model