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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 4 at the 6

Cleveland Browns 13 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(3:28) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass incomplete short middle to 19-C.Tillman.

The Three Options

GO +2.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.32 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 6, worth +0.32 EP
KICK +2.21 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 21, worth -0.50 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model