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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 5 at the 52

San Francisco 49ers 10 – Washington Commanders 3

What Actually Happened

(9:58) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 36 yards to WAS 16, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 83-J.Crowder.

The Three Options

GO -0.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.84 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 52, worth -3.03 EP
KICK -1.83 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.97 EP
PUNT -0.86 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 15, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP