Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- SF offense: +0.205 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
- QB edge to SF: Sam Howell (WAS) -0.109 vs Brock Purdy (SF) +0.306 EPA/dropback
- WAS defense: +0.115 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
- WAS offense: -0.067 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 17
SF
WAS
Pulled fresh for 2023 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 08:10 FG SF (8:10) 4-J.Moody 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky. SF 3 – WAS 0
- Q1 01:35 TD SF (1:35) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle to 19-D.Samuel for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 9 – WAS 0
- Q2 12:10 FG WAS (12:10) 6-J.Slye 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-T.Addington, Holder-5-T.Way. SF 10 – WAS 3
- Q2 04:37 TD WAS (4:37) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass short left to 17-T.McLaurin for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 10 – WAS 9
- Q2 00:22 FG SF (:22) 4-J.Moody 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky. SF 13 – WAS 10
- Q3 05:46 TD SF (5:46) 25-E.Mitchell right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 19 – WAS 10
- Q4 09:30 TD SF (9:30) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep left to 11-B.Aiyuk for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 26 – WAS 10
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 SF 4th & 11 at the 20Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 91%
(8:10) 4-J.Moody 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.
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Q1 WAS 4th & 8 at the 73Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(7:21) 5-T.Way punts 53 yards to SF 20, Center-58-T.Addington. 10-R.Bell to SF 37 for 17 yards (87-J.Bates).
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Q2 WAS 4th & 9 at the 29Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 80%
(12:10) 6-J.Slye 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-T.Addington, Holder-5-T.Way.
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Q2 SF 4th & 5 at the 52Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EPp(convert) 50% p(FG) 25%
(9:58) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 36 yards to WAS 16, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 83-J.Crowder.
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Q2 SF 4th & 4 at the 4Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EPp(convert) 47% p(FG) 98%
(:22) 4-J.Moody 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.
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Q3 WAS 4th & 7 at the 72Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(13:10) 5-T.Way punts 55 yards to SF 17, Center-58-T.Addington, downed by WAS-2-D.Brown.
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Q4 SF 4th & 1 at the 1 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 69% p(FG) 99%
(4:01) 25-E.Mitchell left end to WAS 2 for -1 yards (51-D.Mayo).
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Q4 WAS 4th & 7 at the 95 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43%
(2:24) 5-T.Way punts 48 yards to SF 47, Center-58-T.Addington. 10-R.Bell to SF 47 for no gain (3-B.Pringle).
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Q4 SF 4th & 13 at the 56 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(1:49) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 40 yards to WAS 16, Center-46-T.Pepper. 83-J.Crowder to WAS 18 for 2 yards (0-S.Womack).
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Q4 WAS 4th & 8 at the 80 late-gameChose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.66 EPp(convert) 39%
(1:03) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass short left to 87-J.Bates to WAS 26 for 6 yards (26-I.Oliver).