Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 7 at the 95

Washington Commanders 10 – San Francisco 49ers 27

(2:24) 5-T.Way punts 48 yards to SF 47, Center-58-T.Addington. 10-R.Bell to SF 47 for no gain (3-B.Pringle).

The Three Options

GO -2.81 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 88, worth +0.48 EP
57% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 95, worth -5.25 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (112 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model