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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 13 at the 56

San Francisco 49ers 27 – Washington Commanders 10

What Actually Happened

(1:49) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 40 yards to WAS 16, Center-46-T.Pepper. 83-J.Crowder to WAS 18 for 2 yards (0-S.Womack).

The Three Options

GO -0.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.10 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 56, worth -1.69 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.53 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 17, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model