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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 11 at the 20

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(8:10) 4-J.Moody 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +1.02 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.21 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 20, worth -1.02 EP
KICK +1.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30, worth -1.75 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model