Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 8 at the 80

Washington Commanders 10 – San Francisco 49ers 27

(1:03) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass short left to 87-J.Bates to WAS 26 for 6 yards (26-I.Oliver).

The Three Options

GO -1.67 EP

What Happened

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +0.54 EP
61% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 80, worth -3.06 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.66 EP