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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 9 at the 29

Washington Commanders 0 – San Francisco 49ers 10

What Actually Happened

(12:10) 6-J.Slye 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-T.Addington, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +0.60 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.65 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 29, worth -1.20 EP
KICK +1.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 39, worth -1.88 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model