4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 1 at the 66

Atlanta Falcons 17 – New Orleans Saints 24

What Actually Happened

(11:43) 13-B.Pinion punts 66 yards to end zone, Center-49-L.McCullough, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.57 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 66, worth -3.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.04 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 24, worth -1.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.06 EP