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ATL Away

Atlanta Falcons

HC Arthur Smith
@
NO Home

New Orleans Saints

HC Dennis Allen
Sunday 2024-01-07 · 13:00 Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans US 🏟 Dome Spread 3.5 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

ATL
38.4%
NO
61.6%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • ATL offense: -0.054 EPA/play over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
  • Desmond Ridder (ATL): -0.099 EPA/dropback in prior starts (ATL starting Desmond Ridder in place of Taylor Heinicke)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • ATL defense: -0.092 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • NO defense: -0.017 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (19th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

ATL 20
–
NO 23
Projected margin: NO by 3 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 18

ATL

Drew Dalman C Out Ankle
DeMarcco Hellams S Out Concussion
Troy Andersen LB Out Pectoral
Mike Hughes CB Questionable Concussion
Zach Harrison DE Questionable Knee
Taylor Heinicke QB Questionable Ankle

NO

Lonnie Johnson CB Out Knee
Landon Young T Out Knee
Alvin Kamara RB Questionable Ankle
Kendre Miller RB Questionable Ankle
Nephi Sewell LB Questionable Knee
A.T. Perry WR Questionable Illness
Khalen Saunders DT Questionable Concussion
Juwan Johnson TE Questionable Chest
Payton Turner DE Questionable Toe

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 18 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ATL 17
–
NO 48

Prediction missed by 28 pts on margin, 22 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:49 TD ATL (8:49) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder pass short right to 81-J.Smith for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 6 – NO 0
  • Q1 05:07 TD NO (5:07) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep left to 17-A.Perry for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 7 – NO 6
  • Q1 04:24 TD ATL (4:24) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder pass short left to 7-B.Robinson for 71 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 13 – NO 7
  • Q2 11:09 TD NO (11:09) 73-M.Garcia reported in as eligible. 25-K.Miller left end to ATL 1 for 2 yards (53-N.Landman; 95-T.Graham). New Orleans challenged the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 73-M.Garcia reported in as eligible. 25-K.Miller left end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 14 – NO 13
  • Q2 00:58 FG NO (:58) 19-B.Grupe 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley. ATL 14 – NO 17
  • Q2 00:03 FG ATL (:03) 6-Y.Koo 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. ATL 17 – NO 17
  • Q3 13:08 TD NO (13:08) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 12-C.Olave for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 17 – NO 23
  • Q3 09:02 TD NO (9:02) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 22-R.Shaheed for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 17 – NO 30
  • Q4 10:00 FG NO (10:00) 19-B.Grupe 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley. ATL 17 – NO 34
  • Q4 09:05 TD NO (9:05) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 17-A.Perry for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 17 – NO 40
  • Q4 01:13 TD NO (1:13) New quarterback for NO is 2-J.Winston. 21-J.Williams up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 17 – NO 47

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NO 4th & 11 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (12:28) 39-L.Hedley punts 44 yards to ATL 21, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 2 at the 26
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 87%

    (13:37) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 83-J.Johnson to ATL 14 for 12 yards (59-A.Smith; 27-R.Grant). INJURY UPDATE: ATL 55-K.Elliss, knee, QUESTIONABLE to return.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (8:49) 13-B.Pinion punts 49 yards to NO 21, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 5 at the 47
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 43%

    (4:41) 39-L.Hedley punts 40 yards to ATL 7, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 20-D.Alford.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 6 at the 89
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (2:34) 13-B.Pinion punts 27 yards to ATL 38, Center-49-L.McCullough, out of bounds.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 5 at the 6
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 98%

    (:58) 19-B.Grupe 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.06 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (11:43) 13-B.Pinion punts 66 yards to end zone, Center-49-L.McCullough, Touchback.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 99%

    (1:17) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder pass incomplete short left to 7-B.Robinson.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 3 at the 6
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.92 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 98%

    (10:00) 19-B.Grupe 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (8:13) 13-B.Pinion punts 61 yards to NO 10, Center-49-L.McCullough. 22-R.Shaheed to NO 19 for 9 yards (51-D.Malone).

  • Q4 NO 4th & 10 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (6:39) 39-L.Hedley punts 50 yards to ATL 31, Center-49-Z.Wood. 20-D.Alford to ATL 32 for 1 yard (48-J.Gray).

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 15 at the 73 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (4:45) 13-B.Pinion punts 51 yards to NO 22, Center-49-L.McCullough. 22-R.Shaheed to NO 31 for 9 yards (12-K.Hodge; 49-L.McCullough).