Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 6 at the 71

Atlanta Falcons 17 – New Orleans Saints 41

(8:13) 13-B.Pinion punts 61 yards to NO 10, Center-49-L.McCullough. 22-R.Shaheed to NO 19 for 9 yards (51-D.Malone).

The Three Options

GO -1.68 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.55 EP
57% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 71, worth -4.09 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model