4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 8 at the 55

Cleveland Browns 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 21

What Actually Happened

(6:58) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 51 yards to CIN 4, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-11-J.Proche.

The Three Options

GO -0.92 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.61 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 55, worth -2.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 16, worth -0.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model