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CLE Away

Cleveland Browns

HC Kevin Stefanski
@
CIN Home

Cincinnati Bengals

HC Zac Taylor
Sunday 2024-01-07 · 13:00 Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati US 🌧 Rain Spread 7.5 O/U 37.0

Win Probability

CLE
39.4%
CIN
60.6%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CLE offense: -0.123 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • CIN defense: +0.105 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • Jeff Driskel (CLE): -0.122 EPA/dropback in prior starts (CLE starting Jeff Driskel in place of Joe Flacco)
  • CLE defense: -0.119 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • CLE on 3 more days rest than CIN

Predicted Final Score

CLE 19
–
CIN 21
Projected margin: CIN by 2 Projected total: 40

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 18

CLE

Amari Cooper WR Out Not injury related - resting player
Mike Ford CB Out Calf
Myles Garrett DE Out Shoulder
Dustin Hopkins K Out left Hamstring
Greg Newsome CB Out Knee
Juan Thornhill S Out Calf
Marquise Goodwin WR Questionable Knee
Corey Bojorquez P Questionable left Quadricep
Jordan Kunaszyk LB Questionable Calf
Elijah Moore WR Questionable Concussion

CIN

Tee Higgins WR Doubtful Hamstring
Chidobe Awuzie CB Questionable Shoulder
Jalen Davis CB Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 18 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CLE 14
–
CIN 31

Prediction missed by 15 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:11 TD CIN (6:11) 61-C.Ford reported in as eligible. 28-J.Mixon right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 0 – CIN 6
  • Q1 00:53 TD CIN (:53) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass short left to 28-J.Mixon for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 0 – CIN 13
  • Q2 09:23 TD CIN (9:23) 6-J.Browning pass short middle to 80-A.Iosivas for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 0 – CIN 20
  • Q2 02:00 FG CIN (2:00) 2-E.McPherson 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins. CLE 0 – CIN 24
  • Q3 03:37 TD CIN (3:37) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass short middle to 80-A.Iosivas for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 0 – CIN 30
  • Q4 08:51 TD CLE (8:51) (Shotgun) 12-J.Driskel pass deep left to 18-Dav.Bell for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 6 – CIN 31
  • Q4 02:39 TD CLE (2:39) (Shotgun) 12-J.Driskel pass deep right to 18-Dav.Bell for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 13 – CIN 31

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 17 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (10:21) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 58 yards to CIN 25, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 15-C.Jones to CIN 40 for 15 yards (42-T.Fields).

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (3:59) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 41 yards to CIN 33, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 15-C.Jones.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (14:55) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 53 yards to CIN 22, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 15-C.Jones to CIN 25 for 3 yards (31-V.Gray).

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 8 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (6:58) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 51 yards to CIN 4, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-11-J.Proche.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 4 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (4:00) 10-B.Robbins punts 33 yards to CLE 43, Center-48-C.Adomitis, out of bounds.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 3 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 82%

    (2:00) 2-E.McPherson 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 4 at the 48
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 30%

    (11:52) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 47 yards to CIN 1, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-11-J.Proche.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 4 at the 58
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP
    p(convert) 48%

    (1:47) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 50 yards to CIN 8, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 15-C.Jones pushed ob at CIN 17 for 9 yards (51-J.Kunaszyk).

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 5 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (:26) 10-B.Robbins punts 40 yards to CLE 38, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 11-J.Proche.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 14 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 35%

    (12:59) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 35 yards to CIN 11, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 15-C.Jones.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 14 at the 93
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (11:00) 10-B.Robbins punts 48 yards to CLE 45, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 11-J.Proche.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 4 at the 31
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 74%

    (8:51) (Shotgun) 12-J.Driskel pass deep left to 18-Dav.Bell for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 1 at the 72
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.17 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (6:39) 10-B.Robbins punts 47 yards to CLE 25, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 11-J.Proche.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 9 at the 74 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (:36) 10-B.Robbins punts 56 yards to CLE 18, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 11-J.Proche.