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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 3 at the 27

Cincinnati Bengals 21 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 2-E.McPherson 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins.

The Three Options

GO +1.59 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.35 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 27, worth -0.99 EP
KICK +1.36 EP
What Happened
  • 82% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 37, worth -1.72 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model