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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 4 at the 48

Cleveland Browns 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 24

What Actually Happened

(11:52) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 47 yards to CIN 1, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-11-J.Proche.

The Three Options

GO -0.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.04 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 48, worth -2.81 EP
KICK -1.49 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.89 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 14, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP