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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 5 at the 78

Cincinnati Bengals 31 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(:26) 10-B.Robbins punts 40 yards to CLE 38, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 11-J.Proche.

The Three Options

GO -1.81 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.19 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 78, worth -4.41 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 35, worth -1.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model