Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 14 at the 93

Cincinnati Bengals 31 – Cleveland Browns 0

(11:00) 10-B.Robbins punts 48 yards to CLE 45, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 11-J.Proche.

The Three Options

GO -3.39 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.99 EP
68% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 93, worth -5.43 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (110 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model