4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 1 at the 72

Cincinnati Bengals 31 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(6:39) 10-B.Robbins punts 47 yards to CLE 25, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 11-J.Proche.

The Three Options

GO -0.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.32 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 72, worth -4.22 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.44 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 30, worth -1.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.17 EP