Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 9 at the 74

Cincinnati Bengals 31 – Cleveland Browns 14

(:36) 10-B.Robbins punts 56 yards to CLE 18, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 11-J.Proche.

The Three Options

GO -1.21 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.60 EP
64% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 74, worth -2.24 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model