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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 9 at the 74

Cleveland Browns 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(3:59) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 41 yards to CIN 33, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 15-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -2.38 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.35 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 74, worth -4.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 32, worth -1.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model