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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 31

Washington Commanders 0 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(10:19) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass short left to 8-B.Robinson to DAL 33 for -2 yards (1-J.Kearse, 6-D.Wilson).

The Three Options

GO +2.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +4.20 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 31, worth -0.97 EP
KICK +1.32 EP
  • 74% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 41, worth -1.71 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model