Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- DAL offense: +0.173 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
- QB edge to DAL: Sam Howell (WAS) -0.148 vs Dak Prescott (DAL) +0.186 EPA/dropback
- WAS defense: +0.116 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
- WAS offense: -0.099 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 18
DAL
WAS
Pulled fresh for 2023 week 18 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 18 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 06:30 TD DAL (6:30) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 18-J.Tolbert for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 6 – WAS 0
- Q2 15:00 TD WAS (15:00) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass short left to 8-B.Robinson for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 7 – WAS 6
- Q2 07:07 FG WAS (7:07) 6-J.Slye 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-T.Addington, Holder-5-T.Way. DAL 7 – WAS 10
- Q2 04:15 TD DAL (4:15) 71-C.Edoga reported in as eligible. 20-T.Pollard right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 13 – WAS 10
- Q2 00:29 TD DAL (:29) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 88-C.Lamb for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 20 – WAS 10
- Q3 08:37 TD DAL (8:37) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 88-C.Lamb for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 27 – WAS 10
- Q3 04:11 TD DAL (4:11) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 3-B.Cooks for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 34 – WAS 10
- Q4 01:11 FG DAL (1:11) 17-B.Aubrey 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. DAL 38 – WAS 10
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 WAS 4th & 1 at the 51Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 68% p(FG) 23%
(12:53) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass short right to 8-B.Robinson pushed ob at DAL 40 for 11 yards (21-S.Gilmore).
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Q1 WAS 4th & 1 at the 31Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 66% p(FG) 74%
(10:19) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass short left to 8-B.Robinson to DAL 33 for -2 yards (1-J.Kearse, 6-D.Wilson).
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Q1 DAL 4th & 2 at the 23Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 61% p(FG) 87%
(5:13) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 87-J.Ferguson to WAS 15 for 8 yards (32-T.Burgess, 48-S.Chandler).
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Q1 DAL 4th & 9 at the 14Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 95%
(3:33) 17-B.Aubrey 32 yard field goal is BLOCKED (59-J.Pryor), Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger, RECOVERED by WAS-0-J.Whittaker at WAS 29. 0-J.Whittaker pushed ob at DAL 20 for 51 yards (99-C.Golston).
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Q2 WAS 4th & 1 at the 1Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 62% p(FG) 99%
(15:00) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass short left to 8-B.Robinson for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
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Q2 WAS 4th & 1 at the 46Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 68% p(FG) 34%
(10:11) 61-J.Good-Jones reported in as eligible. 8-B.Robinson right guard to DAL 44 for 2 yards (6-D.Wilson, 33-D.Clark).
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Q2 WAS 4th & 2 at the 17Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EPp(convert) 53% p(FG) 93%
(7:07) 6-J.Slye 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-T.Addington, Holder-5-T.Way.
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Q3 WAS 4th & 12 at the 74Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(6:05) 5-T.Way punt is BLOCKED by 89-P.Hendershot, Center-58-T.Addington, recovered by WAS-38-D.Gore at WAS 9.
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Q4 DAL 4th & 7 at the 18Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39% p(FG) 92%
(9:00) 17-B.Aubrey 36 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.
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Q4 DAL 4th & 9 at the 32 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37% p(FG) 71%
(1:11) 17-B.Aubrey 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.