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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 12 at the 74

Washington Commanders 10 – Dallas Cowboys 28

What Actually Happened

(6:05) 5-T.Way punt is BLOCKED by 89-P.Hendershot, Center-58-T.Addington, recovered by WAS-38-D.Gore at WAS 9.

The Three Options

GO -2.31 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.06 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 74, worth -4.29 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 32, worth -1.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model