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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 7 at the 18

Dallas Cowboys 35 – Washington Commanders 10

What Actually Happened

(9:00) 17-B.Aubrey 36 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +1.46 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.01 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 18, worth -0.81 EP
KICK +1.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 28, worth -1.35 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model