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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Dallas Cowboys
4th & 9 at the 32
Dallas Cowboys 35 – Washington Commanders 10
What Actually Happened
(1:11) 17-B.Aubrey 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.
The Three Options
GO
+0.69 EP
-
37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +3.10 EP
- 63% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 32, worth -0.71 EP
KICK
+1.42 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
- 71% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
- 29% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 42, worth -1.05 EP
PUNT
-0.17 EP
- Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP
The Verdict
Chose KICK
✓ matched the model
